6 Nations 2015 - What Are The Chances? - Connemara Maths Academy

Championship Outright Winners

This year’s much anticipated Six Nations Championship kicks off this Friday with Wales taking on England. If last week’s performance from the Saxons is any indication of what we can expect, England are looking very strong. In fact the bookies are giving England and Ireland similar odds to win the competition outright.
England have an implied probability of 34% to win while Ireland are given a 35% chance. Very tight indeed. Wales have a 25% probability of winning and it seems that France’s chances are not great this year, perhaps surprisingly, with a 15% chance of winning. Scotland have been written off with a 3% chance while Italy are given absolutely no chance whatsoever with a .2% implied probability of winning the Championship outright. Coming into a World Cup year, perhaps France will have a better chance than is given here.

Grand Slam

In terms of a Grand Slam, none of the teams is given a very good chance with Ireland at 17%, England at 14%, Wales at 13% and France at 9% so the Grand Slam will be as elusive as ever and the chances of no one winning a Grand Slam is given as a very emphatic 60% implied probability.

Triple Crown

Interestingly, Ireland, England and Wales are given very similar chances of winning the Triple Crown with Ireland at 25%, Wales at 23% and England at 22% although there’s an almost 40% chance of the Triple Crown not being won at all this year.
This is going to be a very tense and close 6 Nations, no doubt.
Ireland start in Rome with a very tricky opener and it should not be understated just how difficult the opening 30 minutes will be regardless of the 80%+ chance Ireland are given to win this fixture. While England have what many would regard as the strongest team and should indeed be favourites, its very important to keep everything in perspective especially given that England have twice the chance of winning the World Cup 2015 than Ireland have, with England given a 20% chance and Ireland 9%.
Ireland does have Joe Schmidt so all bets are on!

Implied Probability 6 Nations Outright Winner Round Up

Ireland – 35% England – 34% Wales – 25% France – 15% Scotland – 3% Italy – 0%