Man United: Chances of Winning?

Man United are given very little chance this evening.
Looking at the head to head stats below, it makes for interesting reading.
Bayern Stats:

Matches 11
Wins 3
Drawn 6
Losses 2
Goals for 13
Goals Against 12
Goals difference 1
The biggest win 2:11:0
The biggest loss 2:31:2
Points 15

Man United Stats:

Matches 11
Wins 2
Drawn 6
Losses 3
Goals for 12
Goals Against 13
Goals difference -1
The biggest win 3:22:1
The biggest loss 1:20:1
Points 12
There is very little in it with regard to the stats, and in fact, one might argue that Manchester United might actually be due a victory to ‘balance’ the statistics, given that both teams have been neck and neck since 1998, when these statistics began. One might be tempted to go for a draw as a more likely result, given these teams have drawn more times than they have won or lost.
Despite the statistics in the charts above telling us that these teams are almost identical in recent years, the bookies have the teams at very different odds altogether.
Looking at Paddy Power’s odds for the game, they are taking bets at 5/1 for the draw, which is the equivalent of a draw with 17% probability. Should we consider a draw to have a 17% chance of happening and we also consider the percentage chance of 2 goals or more being scored to be at almost 70% likelihood (Paddy Power), its difficult to back a Man United victory at 2-2 or 3-3 given Man United’s recent form.  The likelihood of both teams scoring is at 60% while only one team scoring is at almost 50%.
Overall, Man United are given a fairly miserable chance of getting through the quarter final at almost 12%. They are also given a 5% chance of winning with Bayern not scoring at all and they’re at 7% to win with both teams scoring. It doesn’t look good really, no matter how you look at this.
However, there is always hope, and the psychology of football is almost impossible to factor in. Should United get their defence in order, not make silly mistakes, keep their nerve and intimidate the Bavarians, they will be able to start turning the odds in their favour a little. Given that we are Man United supporters here at CMA, we are going to stick our collective neck out here and go for Man United scoring at least two goals and going through, despite having only a 12% chance of winning.