Sweden are rated with an implied probability of almost 35% to win the competition, which is as fraught with geopolitical tensions, unswerving allegiances, opposing groupings, accusations of corruption and unpopular nations that tend to narrow the field, regardless of the song.
The UK are in with a 15% chance while Ireland have a very poor chance at under 2%.
The fact that the Ukraine is going through a very difficult period with its neighbours Russia is probably behind their respective implied probabilities with the Ukraine on a 12% chance of winning compared to Russia’s 1.2% chance.
There is one stand out dark horse entry which looks to be brilliant value when judged on the song alone as compared to the others: San Marino is given a less than .5% chance of winning!
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